Where are the tower cranes?

About 17 years ago, I lamented the sorry state of our cities in a series of articles in local newspapers with the title, “where are the Tower cranes?”

As usual nothing happened. Governments changed, and we continued to look for more taxes and more IMF programs.

We have much hope in Imran Khan and wish him success. He has the right slogan. 10 million jobs and 5 million houses. I have some association with this slogan. But then this is not about getting credit.

Let us talk about how to achieve this goal.

Mr. Prime Minister at your inauguration I had warned you in an article that vested interest will involve you in useless meetings. Please don’t. Fix a big goal and watch the big picture and stop chairing useless meetings.

In meeting this big goal of 5 million houses and 1 million jobs, just say I want to see tower cranes in all major cities and then check every 3 months. It is as simple as that.

Just think! Wherever development is taking place, you see thousands of tower cranes. Why not here?

Our cities are spreading into large sprawls building floor single-family homes. Commissioners and deputy commissioners who run our cities can only see their GORs as cities. They also maintain that we are rural people and like to hug the ground and will not live in flats. The argue our culture is “Kothi” in a suburb.

From their government-awarded mansions, they overlook their servants’ quarters where families live in one room and a shared bathroom.

Ask them, Why can’t we build up? Why can’t people live in flats? Why can’t we have mixed use development where flats, shops, schools, offices, gyms, entertainment and other amenities be in neighborhoods? Why can’t we have proper dense city centers with high rises?

Dear Prime Minister don’t fall for government provided housing to meet your goal. You neither have the fiscal resources to do that. Nor do you have the government machinery to prevent the massive corruption that will emerge in such a venture.

The best way achieve your goal is to unleash the private sector. Every home in all cities is an investment opportunity. Let each owner build up and provide apartments on rental and otherwise to others. On each plot instead of one family let there be 20, 30 or 40 families.

If restrictions on heights could be relaxed and apartment living encouraged, there could be a building boom in the country. Let each housing unit in our cities (say within a radius of 10 miles from the center) be allowed to go to as much as 20 floors. In some cases, even more.

In such conversions, each owner would have to spend much more than a couple of crore or more. If a million such conversions took place (which is a low number) across say our big cities, we could be looking at an investment potential of Rs 20 Trillion or $ 200 billion.

In addition, a few million additional jobs will be created. The boom would last many years and increase our annual growth rate easily by about 2% annually.

Many addition benefits will also accrue. Large construction has been shown to kick off activity in many related industries.

A virtuous cycle to for long-term sustainable growth over the long term. This boom will also drive urban development, broaden the middle class and develop a demand for consumer goods, entertainment and other urban services. There will be second order effects as the new housing and neighborhoods are populated and as the new middle class generates further demand for services such as schools, gyms, playgrounds, shopping malls, cinemas etc.

If this is done, we can easily look for growth rates in the realm of 7 to 8 % for the for the next 10 to 15 years. A few million jobs will be created over this period and investment rates could easily rise by a few percentage points of GDP.

Mr. Prime Minister, this is a simple rule change to say on all plots high rise and mixed use is allowed with no caveats. No need for a meeting or useless task forces or advisory councils. Just sign it notify it.

It will also be an equalizing reform as it will not be only the rich who benefit. Mostly, the middle class will be a beneficiary.

But please note city managers (civil servants) will scare you from this by saying the following:

· They will say it can only happen in rich areas like Gulberg or on big plots only. Please ask why should the middle-class owner in Baghbanpura or Sandha with a 3 marla not benefit?

· They will point to lack of sanitation and public services, the possibility of poor-quality construction, costs of congestion etc. to preserve the current sprawl approach. The provision of public services as well as safety standards is their job and they should do it. It will take a few years to build and the market will decide where to build. They should be able to see where development is happening and build the required services alongside.

· They will say not near VIP housing to protect rich people privacy. With millions of people homeless and unemployment at massive rates, why put rich people and governor’s privacy at a premium. Tell them to go to suburbs.

· They will point to the need for parking in all buildings. Don’t fall for that. We can must have a car policy. I will write on that next.

Let the boom happen, it will facilitate the change.

This reform is long overdue. Our city centers too should reach the stars populated by a rising middle class.

Once you put the notification in effect, to monitor performance all you do is to ask in all cities you visit “where are the tower cranes?” If they do not increase exponentially you know city managers should be fired.